SAS 0.00% 1.6¢ sky and space company ltd

Hi all, I've been watching from afar but thought it was time to...

  1. 138 Posts.
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    Hi all,

    I've been watching from afar but thought it was time to have some input here.

    I've spent the last week or so reading through every announcement since SAS took the reigns from BUR on the ASX. As well as that, I've watched every video I could find where Meir and/or Meidad have been interviewed. I like to develop a bit of an appreciation for the type of characters running the company that I'm investing in. They seem to be top class operators with excellent driving credentials. Based on the videos I've seen, they appear like passionate, morally correct human beings. They seem sincere but most importantly competent. Brett Mitchell on the other hand makes me feel a little uneasy. Not too dissimilar to a circling vulture...(lets hope there's one big a** carcass for the lot of us to feed on).

    Aside from that, I feel like after reading through the company's announcements in a chronological order, I can confidently say, they've hit their targets.
    It highlights two things:
    1. They've planned this entire concept in great depth allowing them to have a steady handle on what's attainable program wise; &
    2. They're committed to delivering on their promises.

    Now to the quarterly...

    There are some fantastic highlights that should not be underappreciated i.e.
    1. Theory of differential drag without propulsion - this IP has definitely NOT being priced in. Fairly huge deal to say the least but the real test of it comes with the full constellation. Irrespective it's a milestone that should be appreciated!

    2. Operational tests with 'potential key telco and corporate customers' - what makes them 'key'? ...because they will bring in the majority of our revenue? or because they will become a strategic partner with deep pockets that will help fund the rest of the constellation. This has been alluded to in past anns and would explain why there's 0 mention of how they will fund the constellation. I don't think Meir & Meidad are the type to be laying in bed one night and say "sh!t!!!! How are we going to pay for the rest of the 200 satellites!?" They're meticulous.

    3. First launch on track for early 2019 (20-25) nanosats. First material revenues expected H2 2019. - Then we must define material. Obviously it needs to be material relative to their projected revenues of 300-500m since no more than half of the constellation could be up by the end of H2 2019.
    So, if everything we're earning up until that point is immaterial, how much revenue does that allude to? Is 10% considered immaterial? Maybe, maybe not. How about 30%? That still seems immaterial in my eyes. What about theirs? Lets assume 25% of full projected revenue is immaterial. If we're launching 20-25 sats/qtr starting early 2019 then H2 2019, we should have 40-50. Potential revenue prorata would be 120m-150m. That's 30-37.5m H1 2019. To be honest, I'd take half of that. As long as we're solvent, hopefully we can find a strategic partner to dig deep to aid the rest of the constellation to go up. leads to the next point.

    4. Field trials commencing. Paratus - 'seen as a major potential revenue stream'. I guess that made up a good portion of their revenue projections. Good thing that relationship is underway then...
    Disappointing re the Globalsat delay - I was expecting it in the next fortnight but I guess the next fortnight is the 'June quarter', so I won't get too carried away with throwing stones just yet.

    I also echo the sentiments of pd205 with respect to Universal Cyberlinks and Tagmeter. Had read nothing about either in previous ann. Not sure how a binding agreement can go unannounced.

    I've read every post with an open mind. Every stance is welcomed and appreciated, as long as it's constructive. Sometimes it works wonders for your credibility if you can pose concerns, when you've only been considered as a serial 'upramper' on HC. It is conducive for the environment we are trying to promote.

    That frost and sullivan report/award was a good read too btw. They've nailed some past winners, so lets hope that it all points upwards. As Meir would say 'space is the lower limit' hahaha i cringe and laugh at that but hell, SHOW ME THE MONEY!

    Exciting quarter ahead.
 
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