AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, page-240

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  1. 2,170 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 5806
    Appreciate all your posts Scrapa.

    * I see all offtake prices coming down at least for a chunk of 2019. PLS at US$742, AJM likely similar, GXY will come down I'm sure with its at best 5.7% grade of $900+. I did see this nice table by Rodney Hooper relating carbonate prices to spodumene prices with the obvious requirement that converters need some profit. Sitting at US$11600/t right now for battery grade ex works China according to Fastmarkets. They also have the 5-6% spodumene price at $600-$750/t. Offshore markets holding stronger.

    https://do not advertise external sites/LITHIUM-PRICES-UPDATE.html

    Also important to remind folks of the big difference in price between 5% and 6% grade where often there is a reward/penalty of US$15 per 0.1% grade (or something similar) above on below 6%. So a 5.5% (GXY) grade to a 6.2% (PLS) could be a US$100/t difference and significant.

    Dx_FDnoWsAApbf9.jpg

    So do I think the US$920/t figure in the SS is justified? No I don't. While AVZ would get prices near the top of the hardrock producer quality curve, I wouldn't bet on $920 right now (GXY will come down hard once offtake prices are renegotiated. I remember asking James Brown (AJM CEO) about GXY's price and he said he couldn't understand how their converters could be in the green, so I expect some softening in their offtake prices (not sure how long they are locked in for or their terms however)).

    *
    Impurities also play a role here and what I'm reading is that the Chinese Qinghai lake brine based carbonate production which has problem with high magnesium impurities are now struggling to be profitable with the lower domestic carbonate prices. The end result is that all of this downturn is slowing down development and supply expansion with even AVZ suffering trying to get deals in this current climate.

    * Ultimately, electric vehicle sales is where is at. So 2018 to 2019, should hopefully increase this from 2 million units to 3. The extra million EVs is maybe around 40kt LCE extra needed in 2019 (not to mention any other demand source which could be very significant). This demand increase goes up against a big year of supply increase with PLS/AJM etc coming online. However things do pick up pretty rapidly after 2019 (assuming 50% growth assumption in sales...we had 62% in 2018). So I do see happy days for lithium again but not sure when exactly. I would imagine folks would want to secure supply before the demand hits hard and its important to remember that not only is current output all offtaked, so is much of future expansion.

    * In regards to AVZ,
    -
    By far the biggest issue IMO is the complete lack of a robust transport solution beyond mere hand waving. I was always of the opinion, they would use road 617. ML then started confidently talking about going east, rail to barge etc and the SS turned out to be completely different (regular trucks in 1/2 ton bags). The road east is not in good shape with bridges missing, port not upgraded, questions about rail in Tanzania handling the volume etc. I can totally understand why the Chinese have been holding off here when we don't even know the route AVZ want to take.
    - Financials in the quarterly were far from stellar. The raise reeks of desperation. Question about where Huayou sits in all of this and what they will do with their options when the expiry date comes near. Even the potential of AVZ going to 70% ownership is difficult to interpret with those folks potentially willing to give up their shares having once agreed to rehabilitate the hydroelectric dam (is that still going to happen now?).
    - Reports are late, $50 million in investor suggested last year by Nigel nowhere to be seen.

    Anyhow, the result is that the largest deposit with the lowest strip ratio on earth is now sitting sub-100 million market cap. I did move around my lithium investments some time back to focus more on the new Australian based producers (all hurting in the current climate) but I will continue to hold a parcel here. Still believe the EV revolution will reward the sector in the longer term.


 
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