I wouldn't call some investors like myself impatient or short sighted.
The reason why I started the thread on Understanding Lithium Demand was to put a point down on when AVZ could enter the market - and that point is 2022 to 2025. At the time AVZ was talking about entering the market in 2020 and 2021, which I think would have been difficult in any event, and this announcement itself IMO prevents those previously stipulated AVZ dates as well, so the best I think AVZ can do to get to production is late 2021.
In terms of draining the lake I suspect, as per the Ann, it is about testing the rock wall btw, and obviously well they need to also test the ore there, also as per the Ann, as that is where the first ore into any facility will come from. If they can use teh rock wall, well it might makeup for an aspect of some lost time in getting to production as well.
I recognise why they may decide to blend, but to put it bluntly in April 2018, one year ago, I basically said on these threads at the time that if they were going to start with a 2mtpa ore feed facility they may of well have developed Carriere, Post #: 32775985, and that was before the latest drilling, so maintaining Roche and now thinking about a blend with Carriere ore is about ramping to 5mtpa relatively quickly IMO IMO.
So entering the market in a timely manner is the key, and moving dates out, like the DFS, with little explanation doesn't bode well for communication strategy to a market already uninformed. It also paints a picture to market that AVZ can't meet deadlines.
As I said, I was very skeptical of their previous 2020 date, and the latest announcement confirms that skeptism. However, it is the fact dates get moved out here so often that is the concern, because will they actually meet the DFS for December 2019 now becomes the question.
The resource is fantastic, we know that, but getting it to market and making sure you enter the market when there is that gap for you to enter is the key here. Miss the gap to enter and we be waiting more to time to enter. Demand and filling that demand doesn't need to wait for AVZ, AVZ need to take the opportunity as presented and if taken well AVZ in teh market thn has its problems for others who want to enter the market or expand given the scale of resource AVZ has (but AVZ need to enter the market to show the market its strategic advantage and SP will take care of itself). I suspect, as I posted a while ago, the SP is more reflective of a market thinking AVZ will enter the market after 2025 than before 2025, so it is up to AVZ to prove them wrong, which I suspect they will - Post #: 37647762
Doing the DFS right is a must, and yes if that needs to be done to December so be it, but honesty to SH on timelines and reasons for missed timelines is the key here, not this constant barrage of missed timelines which brings Market uncertainty to AVZ.
All IMO IMO IMO
AVZ Price at posting:
4.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
