Yes the Baltic dry index is up. But its also still down about 30% from were it was when E25 was shipping at in the low $30's/t (around US$1/dmtu). The possible 50% shipping falls have gone for the moment, but there are still likely to be substantial gains relative to the last shipment. A rebounding Baltic dry is going to make the maths difficult on the next shipment/qtr because unless E25 confirms there is a wide range of possibilities on what the shipping contract rates will be. They may have already contracted their next shipment at rates well below those available today. They may be receiving rates only now. The shipment may have already departed, but I'd have expected an announcement if this had happened. Like many things we just don't know.
What we do know are some key changes over the last few months
Production is restored and indications are that it is something around nameplate that is being achieved
Shipping costs should still be still down on last time (but the extent of this decrease has got smaller)
The current spot price of 44% Mn is up over 10% from the prices likely to have existed for shipments 3 (and >15% from 1&2).
We have received confirmation that HP has strong potential financials
Confirmation of expansion plans is still expected to be announced soon
And despite all of these, the share price has fallen back down to nearly the low's seen in 2021.
E25 Price at posting:
$1.10 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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