I do wonder whether the absence of updates is because something big is being worked on in the background that has an attached non-disclosure notice except for items that require ASX releases like quarterlies. This would explain why E25 has gone silent on progress updates because these are often not required.
If I had a record January month like we suspect E25 has had, I'd have put out a release on it. If I'd backed that up with a similarily strong February month, I'd have put out a release on that also. If I was booking shipping at a Baltic dry circa 2,000 rate when the last one was around 3,187 and this was a 35% improvement - I'd be putting a release out about that also. The 44% Mn reference price having gone from about $5.15-$5.30 for the first two shipments to an expectation of around or over $6.20 for the fourth - I'd be putting out a release about that also. If I was now forecasting over A$35m of revenue across Q3 & Q4 inclusive of smelter credits when only reporting A$11m in Q1/Q1 - I'd be putting out a forecasting record revenue annoucement. ($6.2-$2)*33*180,000/.72=A$34.5m, with $2 being a guess of grade discounts and shipping at lower rates and no allowance for smelter credits. I believe the share price is where it is because the market is fearing the worst due to the absence of any confirmation from E25 that things remain on-track for name plate production. Normally something affirmative would have come out by now.
Its it just a truely incompetent person looking after PR/ASX notifications? Is something bigger brewing? Is there a major unannounced problem and E25 is risking being in breach of listing rules by not advising it?
If there is some sort of non-disclosure agreement, who could E25 be working with that would have been important enough to mean its sensible to block discretionary BAU progress update announcements? It would need to be someone pretty critical - could there be the Boom Boom Boom share price announcement that is being worked on?
What if E25 was in discussions with Tesla around an off-take agreement for HP Mn?Would you sign a NDA so as to progress these discussions, even if it made E25 look a bit of an idiot for a while - yes
Would Tesla be interested in a non-chinese source of HP Mn - yes
Is Tesla signing other agreements for battery materials it needs - yes
If E25 was close to finalising a deal with Tesla, an annoucement about the circular partnership would be a whole lot more price sensitive than it appears at first glance (given E25 doesn't yet even have a DFS for the HPMSM product to which the circular announcement relates). The commitments to produce zero carbon manganese would also be critical.
We know Tesla is looking to secure graphite (SYA). We know Tesla is looking to secure lithium (CXO and LTR). We know Tesla has signed Nickel deals recently (BHP & Talon Metals Corp). We know Telsa is looking at a battery chemistry needing Graphite, Lithium, Nickel and Manganese.
Tesla is on record as saying they are looking at two-thirds nickel, one-third manganese battery chemistries. The article below indicates they alone would be looking for 100ktpa by 2030. If E25 was producing a 33% sulphate the upper end of their plans at 150kt would be about 50kt of pure-metal equivalent - a really good start towards what Tesla needs, and the timing would be a good fit.
The following appeared in the article linked below:
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/02/tesla-breathes-life-into-the-manganese-markets/
DISC - DYOR and I own a bunch of shares that I think are under-valued. These are some thoughts following Tesla announcing another deal today with Core.
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