Cara> ..order just got hit...lolAre you suggesting that BYE is a...

Cara> ..order just got hit...lol

Are you suggesting that BYE is a leaky boat?

In other news.

The voice of reason seems to suggest that the price of oil will be falling. He has a point, the LL futures $100 oil horizon has moved from 12 months to 1 month. Indeed it disappear at one stage. But is now is back to one month. The price of oil is a Geopolitical creature, and has a direct impact on BYE bottom line.

This jump in oil price has been caused by the end of the covid lock down, in the west, and special operations in the Ukraine. It must have been amazing for the US to to see their former enemy start a war with themselves. exSoviet Vs exSoviet. What to do? Pick the weaker side, sell your old & obsolete weapons to them from storage, and at great cost (after all they will sign anything - they are at war) and then get the EU to fast track membership, so the US can stick the Germans with the weapon procurement bill later. Brilliant. Except of course Russia is not the future enemy of the US. It's China. And China's one great weakness? Resources. I have to ask if the US has shot themselves in the foot by pushing resource rich Russia towards the Chinese sphere of influence.

Today the US can block oil resources going to China with it's navy. There are two obvious choke points. The Strait of Hormuz, where everyone except the US suffers, if choked. And the "Strait of Malacca." where the far east will suffer, if choked. However, now that Russia is an enemy of the west, and have had their wealth stolen via sanctions., They will be building infrastructure over the land border to China. A much more "reliable" economic partner. This resource corridor, which by definition is not chokeable by the navy, is being built and expanded now. Soon China will be free of this resource constraint concern. And their 1.4 billion population, will be free to grow to 4x the US's 330M population in economic might with an equal infrastructure and technology footing. I am sure the US does not want China doing it's own "freedom of navigation" exercises, off the cost of Cuba, in 2040. In short ,we have the future geopolitical equation of Russia + China > America by 2040.

So, China (a nuclear power) has a current resource flaw, that looks to be fading and with the future capacity to overtake the US as an economic world power. What to do? The US must chose

1) Nothing, and accept they are no longer the future world power.
2) Goad China into doing something silly. A good start might be to send Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.

What does this mean for oil prices?

Badger sees everything heading into the the green. The DXY is falling, the 10 year bonds is falling, LL futures is falling. Spot Oil prices, falling. I expect this to continue until after the November US mid terms. Will the US consumer start spending again and drive up the cost of oil, now that demand destruction does not seem to be on the table? I see $80 oil in the near future.

All disclaimers.

TLDR; (Russia + China) in 2040 > US in 2040.