Yes, another CR is certain. My guess is by July – and that's...

Yes, another CR is certain. My guess is by July – and that's just the small one to allow the company to pay for normal operations like paying the directors and continuing the drilling program. So I question the idea that people will be topping up at 2c. That's around the price at which the CR will be held, and a sizeable discount will be needed to sell it, so I think anyone who wants to buy will wait for that price.

The CR after that – to pay for the proposed mine and treatment plant – will be the real doozy. By November when the PFS comes out, the discounted price needed to sell new shares will take the already low price even lower. I base this assumption on the belief that there won't be any massive discoveries that might lift the share price before then. The dilution from the first CR, then the second, combined with the debt that will be part of the CR, will slaughter the share price.

My guess is that's when Newcrest will make a move on the company. Like any buyer, NCM want to pay the lowest price possible. They might be a big company with strong cash flow, but they got that way by being good strategists and savvy investors, and are not going to throw money at AZY out of sympathy for its shareholders. AZY's resource isn't nearly good enough to fuel an urgent need to own it, so I think NCM will wait for the price to sink below 1c before making a pitch.

Directors' options can be exercised at 1.9c in November. It will be interesting to see if they do so. If so, some will read it as an endorsement of AZY's potential. I think it will be because they see a takeover on the cards in the 3-4c range.