imo you are all correct but again you need to frame your Q/A relative to the sector values
at 43c sp, MKR trades at an implied EV of $33M on my assumption the mill is worth $100m mark to market
IVR trades at $100M EV with no mine - and they both have 50Moz in silver JORC
at present with some desultory non silver value
So the questions to ask yourself is
- can MKR run cashflow positive on its remaining gold then its silver - which is half the grade of IVR's
- whats the probability MKR get better vs worse at production mgt
- whats the downside risk in the event there's a small hole in capital funding vs a deep hole vs what you pay for alternative exposures
anyone who buys precious metal mining stocks without an eye to precious metal spot price upside vs downside is bonkers - as spot price is the main determinant of how the equities price regardless of profitability
as EVN's current sp illustrates - that is as close to a seamless deep margin operator as you will get in ASX precious metals. but its sp is primarily determined by gold spot price, not its cost base or certainty of being net profitable
ultimately - most of the factors suggest MKR is undervalued... even if the company has to undertake a CR to fill a small hole.
there is a small chance that a big miss means a more appreciable drawdown and larger CR. So its not a stock I could have 100% of my portfolio in
its often said its more dangerous to go mining than to mine the market - for this reason
but against all that needs to be set the far higher upside if gold/silver move higher from here - as MKR on any breakout should attract far higher multiples as a producer vs an explorer
the stock is obviously priced for most of that - basically waiting for metal price to set direction
technically its pregnant with breakout potential . so the risk reward scenario is excellent
