I'm rattled.
I think the FDA will approve it, even though its exact place in bile duct cancer is not clear to me. My guess is that everyone (including the FDA) wants to give patients with ca pancreas the option of this treatment off label because there is precious little else on offer. The cholagio is simply a backdoor access until the NDA trials are done.
I think every centre that is currently giving Sirtex or Theraspheres will be comfortable to do this, even though they are done in radiology and this is in endoscopy.
My guess is that after some more evidence on downstaging LAPC to surgery, almost everyone who gets LAPC or anyone who was going to get surgery anyway will still get Oncosil first. And then, my guess is that anyone with a mass even with metastatic disease will get it for palliation purposes anyway. Again, its a bad disease with few options.
So, I'd expect more sales to happen in both Europe and US post HDE approval. And generally the market likes high % growth in income, so starting at 200k this FY is fine if next year it's 2 million.
But.
It's the corporate strategy I'm not clear about. Like, why is this stock 5 cents. Why hasn't the FDA submission happened? Why did Roberts bail now? Why has Bell Potter put a value of 7cents? Is this related to Buttula? It's all this stuff I know nothing about.
Remember, It's approved in several countries and has achieved actual sales - many many biomedtech stocks will never achieve that. I still think management now is better than previous.
While I don't think its a billion dollar company, it should be worth multiples more than EV 30 million. The market hates it. And given it will be raising funds, how do they intend to lift the sp?
This falls to the Management and the Board. At this level, I could honestly see private equity coming in, buying it at 10 cents, holding for 3 years, putting in some $, and making 5X by relisting or selling it on.
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