Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-9

This is a welcome result. Cash receipts for the year are up $9.4m (32%) from $29.2m in 2020 to $38.7m in 2021.

The following comment is a bit of a downer;

Keamy says "one most important factor is that we are are able to grow CLINUVEL whereby we are keeping our promises to state and private health insurers by maintaining uniform price levels year-on-year and by not exceeding national volumes of drug supply."

To me it sounds like we are maxed out with sales in Europe...unless more countries can be added. Sales there have plateaued the last 2 years, and I assume unlikely to change anytime soon. Whatever happened to the NICE approval....dead in the water? Probably realised their time is better spend elsewhere... like the US.

Staff costs were up by $2.6m (182%), from $1.4m in June 20 quarter, to $4m this June 21 quarter. So... its strange how they say the key reason for increase in operating expenditures, was due to "rising manufacturing and supply costs of raw materials"... when these costs only increased by $1m - from $1.05m in 2020 to $2.05m in 2021. Headcount has defiantly increased, but maybe there's cash bonuses etc they don't want to highlight just yet.

Anyway...I think its safe to assume most of the $9m increase in sales was due to the US rollout. At say $AUD 22k per implant, this is 400 implant sales (that we've received cash for) in the last 12 months. If you assume there's an increasing number of patients being added, from a starting point of almost zero in July 2020, we could be doing roughly 60 implants per month by June 2021. If that growth continues throughout 2022 we could have an average of 90 implants per month in 2022, which equates to $23.7m in sales from US. Nothing to sneeze at.... and would put 2022 cash receipts at $52m.

In reality is not as simple as this to forecast, due to seasonality, holdups with insurers and..... Covid19. It could actually be much higher than this, but I don't think it will be much lower. In short though, it should be a good year. Just a matter of time before the institutions jump on board the CUV wagon.