Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-64

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    Do you read the announcement's Teddy? Yes - and more than that I understand them and teh fickle detail of this business and it's current owners which all go towards the market valuation.

    1. Nearly 5 positive cash flow QTR's. --- Lets see next couple of reports and see what is sustainable and profitable - they need growth and diversity to continue in business? They don't seem to be doing that. It takes scale to do advertising and promotion effeciently and that is what leads to the following quarters sales in this industry. If you don't invest in that promotion the resulting sales don't magically appear . These costs can be hidden in discounts and rebates not appearing till following quarters.
    2. Two bids in the last couple of years; KBC and Aurora (hint: if they want to own it, so do you). --- Now you do know who thoise 2 groups are don't you? Strategic predation and were bidding in the end to get control earlier whil IMO usingn a strategy of fatiguing shareholders locking up YOW in legal cases etc. Well worth you doing your research on these groups and their performance.
    3. Nil CR required. Nice cash on hand. - Double edged sword. They don't actually have enough cash to buy another business to scale up to justify costs on running a listed business . Because tehy don't need cash and few peoepl would fund these guys IMO there is no market tension, no research and no pressure on price by any broking groups. There is no pressure as no one wants to become a minority holder as they have no control and chance of getting control.
    4. High potential product. Proven product history going back to the Cadbury days plus the precedent set by Kinder Surprise. ----I don't know if you know the real history and teh fact thet Yowie was the pathfinder and original and in the USA YOW had exclusive open market in which Kinder was banned. YOW current small market size that has detoriated was due to Kinder not being in the USA. Kinder is now in USA and marke
    5. Management change (big factor. Seems like the previous team would stuff up running Maccas given the chance). --- Previous teams - several all had issues from som brilliant moves to disaster. The original impressive ability to get into Walmart is still the lynchpin that keeps this company going with some sales volume. It is a large fickle coustomer who when it throws it's weight around can destroy small suppliers as seen a few years back when they claimed millions in damaged stock rebates that nearly broke YOW. All prior management took far more than their fair share in $ whele there and upon leaving and all got their rewards before shareholders. Now the current current management controlled by the predators. They previously indicated sale of the biusiness was a suitable solution so you have to wonder if everything is geared towards that. Truth is it doesn't fit very well into other posiibbe purchasers portfolio IMO. So they look to be running it on a shoestring and buyers thin on the ground and it will cost $ to close it down IMO.


    Hypothetical: a SP of 15c, assuming a PE of 15, is about 2.1M FY earnings. Not unrealistic going forward. 10c even easier - and could be here very quickly.

    So as pointed out above it is the fine detail about this small manufacturing and distribution business that IMO don't give it the valuation you expect. The market isn't stupid and anyone can scan financials of hundreds of companies and think they have found " gold " in a overlooked company but then you have to have industry and company knowledge and appply suitable discount factors. If you don't apply discount factors you are looking at fools gold at a premium.

    Why do you think it is being overlooked by the market to teh extent of 300 % as you describe? Why the discount?

    IMO If you are in it for a trade and want to ride the day traders pump like last time - go for it but remember to take some profits and not be the stale bagholder . There IMO are reasons the market doesn't like YOW. If you are a tech trader just be aware it has been set up a few times IMO- graph VWAP and se ethe true transactions not minor buys and sells nro be distracted by fake depth.

    Last edited by Teddyward: 1067 27/08/21
 
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