G'day mate, thanks for your comments. Within the context of historically slow quarters, where "large" ARR contracts are rarely signed, I'm comfortable with 15% quarter on quarter growth in ARR. The largest contract signed in Q1/Q2 was the "landmark" defence contract, most of which was services based and not ARR. If this result was posted in Q3/Q4, I'd be spitting chips.
In respect of cash burn, the two inputs are receipts and costs. What I intended to note is a focus on the reduced revenue from the previous quarter to the current quarter isn't as important as the actual cashflow. I've said numerous times that ARR growth is critical - I even stated "I think most agree the key metric for this business is ARR growth" - which in turn is directly linked to the receipts, as the ARR is paid for upfront on an annual basis.
If management is able to hold their costs steady, which they've stated in the 4C, and they're able to achieve bigger contracts in Q3/Q4, which would accord with historical precedents, the cash burn becomes a non-issue.
What is investing if not "hope"? We're taking historical data and try to predict the future knowing there are a series of possible outcomes, of which only one can occur, with a small range of possible outcomes being favourable for us. All we can do is hope that we buy at a price where there's an adequate margin of safety, with an asymmetry between the risk and the reward, where the downside is minimised and the potential upside is exponential.
Regarding the business turning around, I've had a long held position and loaded up at sub 6c, averaging up slowly over time. I'm hardly fussed about the price and remain convinced the business is in a materially better position than when it was trading at a substantially higher price.
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