Welcome aboard,
@Adm1 &
@CatalystDriven.
Stellar Q3 FY22 quarter, congratulations to the management team. The net cash flow from operating activities of $2.6m is outstanding. But CF varies quarter to quarter based on the timing of receipts and working capital needs, and so I was even more pleased to see group
EBITDA continue to climb to $503k, up from $216k in the previous quarter (Q2 FY22) and up from a loss of -$265k in the prior corresponding period (Q3 FY21).
EBITDA is currently running at an annual run-rate of c.A$2M and growing at 134% per quarter. Even on today's progress alone
(and not factoring in the incredible growth trajectory, with operating leverage kicking in), HLF is currently worth $30M at a 15x EBITDA multiple. That's the current market cap.
When you start to project forward a couple of quarters, one can envisage HLF hitting quarterly EBITDA of $1-2M this calendar year, equating to annualised EBITDA of $4-8M. That would provide a fair valuation of between $60M to $120M in the short term (on a 15x EBITDA multiple), compared to a market cap of just $30M today. The investment thesis is starting to play out: I believe this is a multi-bagger in the making.
The sales pipeline is very robust moving into Q4-FY22, with some great updates in the quarterly: "a number of clients have indicated increased volumes and additional SKUs over the coming 12 months, with forecasts to be provided in due course."
(20min delay)