Hi All - just sharing some of my thoughts -
1. ARR growth exceed my expectations at 166% for Q3. If I take the past 7 quarters ARR (including Q4 '22 Outlook), we're looking at a CAGR of 30%. If we maintain a 30% CAGR over the next 12 months, then we're sitting on a Price to Sales of 2.5x by April '23. On that metric, we're cheap.
2. Management has not committed to an ARR figure in the past. To project an ARR of $3.6M at the minimum for Q4 '22 indicates strong confidence in the attraction of new clients/partners and revenue per client/partner.
3. The number of new Enterprise Clients and Partners has grown by 3% CAGR over the past 5 quarters vs 30% CAGR for ARR. This indicates that existing clients are increasingly satisfied with the Kyckr experience and accordingly consume more. I suspect that we also have a handful of clients that are high-growth fintechs (vs mature big banks) - meaning Kyckr will continue to accelerate as these fintechs accelerate.
4. Historically, Kyckr has issued announcements for the signing of new, meaningful Enterprise clients. However, over the past 6 months, Kyckr has stopped this despite closing some fairly material contract wins. And this coincides with RW picking up his accumulation of Kyckr shares. Not sure if it's entirely coincidental - I still suspect something is at play - perhaps a merger with a similar firm like Simple KYC or an organised sale to a larger business like Moody's.
Overall, I remain confident in my KYK investment. Happy to have bought some shares yesterday - although couldn't complete my order due to a certain buyer coming over me ...
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