Im surprised everyone is down about this quarterly. They are...

Im surprised everyone is down about this quarterly. They are ontrack for where they want to be, and completely in line with their tradingannouncement the other day (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-htg-trading-update.6661985/)

They’regrowing / expecting to grow at circa 60% each quarter - which is exceptionally solid.

If theycontinue growing ARR at this pace, they will comfortably hit their $10m ARR / 1,000 licence target (https://mcusercontent.com/9e66afe23d93c9629710dbc7f/files/f55c2459-631d-9358-f8a7-8f68473d91f8/220223_HTG_Investor_Presentation_v2_Read_Only.pdf).

You’dreasonably expect them to increase sales / uptake in a more parabolic functionthan in a linear function. So I’m still expecting that they’ll hit $10m ARR by theend of the calendar year.

On topof that you have potential huge deals with Cisco and government.

If theyhit the $10m ARR, the SP will be higher than $0.25, and options can / will beexercised when necessary - there is another $10m in revenue from those options.

Neversay never, but another CR seems highly unlikely.

WhileI would love for them to pick up an extra $5m ARR straight away, it’s currentlya slower burn. If they can maintain that 60% quarter growth (which is tough) itwill be amazing.

Rightnow though, their trading update and quarterly were in sync and on target.They’re making slow, steady gains, towards their set target - which is exactlywhat they said they’d do. No issues herefor me.

For full transparency, I’ve been shifting some of my other stocks around selling some andpicking up others I believe have the potential for a more explosive short termgrowth. I haven’t changed my HTG holding (I consider that I am over represented / over exposed in HTG for myportfolio).

Iconsider that the negative price movement is not unexpected. The company hasntannounced anything g earth shattering, so there isn’t a lot of new money comingin, and everyone who is a believer / existing holder most likely pickedup shares at the last raise (I did) it was obviously a more attractiveproposition. The share price is bumping around on nothing volume (up and down).It’s going to continue until there’s some significant news, or some very strongARR. if the company maintains (or exceeds) it’s current quarterly growth (andthere are no other significant announcements) I expect the share price toremain pretty flat / stagnant until the 3rd calendar quarter results this year.Expecting anything else is probably a little too optimistic, especially in thismarket.

Psloving the continued research / informative posts from so many of the regulars,it’s great to see, and very much appreciated!

2022 Rough MRR/ARR projections.

	Low			12
1
2		MRR	Rate	ARR
3	Actual	$125,000.00		$1,500,000.00
4	Actual	$212,000.00	1.696	$2,544,000.00
5	Company forecast	$300,000.00	1.41509434	$3,600,000.00
6	Forecast	$480,000.00	1.6	$5,760,000.00
7	Forecast	$768,000.00	1.6	$9,216,000.00
8
9	Medium			12
10		MRR	Rate	ARR
11	Actual	$125,000.00		$1,500,000.00
12	Actual	$212,000.00	1.696	$2,544,000.00
13	Company forecast	$325,000.00	1.533018868	$3,900,000.00
14	Forecast	$520,000.00	1.6	$6,240,000.00
15	Forecast	$832,000.00	1.6	$9,984,000.00
16
17	High			12
18		MRR	Rate	ARR
19	Actual	$125,000.00		$1,500,000.00
20	Actual	$212,000.00	1.696	$2,544,000.00
21	Company forecast	$350,000.00	1.650943396	$4,200,000.00
22	Forecast	$560,000.00	1.6	$6,720,000.00
23	Forecast	$896,000.00	1.6	$10,752,000.00