I thought the drop was very predictable and got out before it happened. We'll probably see 17c support tested today, and I'm not so sure it'll hold today or in the days/weeks ahead. Hopefully it will, but it seems far from assured.
I think holders (speaking generally, not just TNT specifically) often fall into a sense of disbelief that the price could fall too far from the fundamental that they see after length, well-considered fundamental analysis, ignoring how fickle, irrational, impatient, and cursory the market is. If you're in it for the very long haul, this thinking will still serve you well, but the price fluctuations along the way over your years of holding will confuse you, even though you'll probably reach your target in the end.
The quarterly was fairly good. Without analysing it in detail which I'm sure others will do at length, the highlight was the strong gross revenue growth which actually exceeded my expectations, but the concern is the bottom line in terms of net revenue. Note that as a non committed holder (now once again a non holder) I'm more interested in how I expect the market to respond than how I see the long term future of the company. If I was a long term holder currently sitting in the green I would be seeing things differently, but as someone who bought in recently I was happy to take my profit after buying recently and look to greener pastures.
The main problem I think the market has with TNT is that the growth in revenue, while considerable, is gross revenue and in terms of net revenue per share it's not so impressive. I see holders typically staring at the gross revenue figure with tunnel vision, while the rest of the market looks more at the negatives holders ignore.
Long term I still see a bright future for TNT, I still like the company and I definitely won't rule out getting back in down the track, I wouldn't even be surprised to see 17c hold this week and the rising trend to continue until 19.5c resistance is tested around late next month, but short term (the next month or two) I think it's most likely to stay in the 15c-19.5c range.
The chart is looking moderately interesting at the moment and IMO tells a pretty clear message, but that message isn't for anything too dramatic to happen. Based on the chart and the fundamentals, I think TNT is more likely to break above the current channel than below it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that channel (currently more than five months in) to last for the next two months or so. Still looking great long term and I'd be very surprised to see it fall out of the channel, so there's little long term downside IMO. If I didn't see better opportunities elsewhere I'd probably have just left my money parked in TNT and resigned myself to wait a few months before being excited.
Good luck to all holders,
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