G'day mate, I agree with basically everything you've commented...

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rasaj

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14/06/22

18:42

Post #: 61998550
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Originally posted by tropic: ↑

Hi rasaj,
The Outlook I view as the outlook for the next quarter(given it's quarterly reports) including setting foundations going forward. Additionally, an expectation of achievement based on current knowledge and trajectories. So, they have set the expectation for accelerated ARR growth and an increase in sales contracts. If that doesn't happen tehy have misjudged their outlook and owe us an explanation.

I think cashflows need to be monitored very closely due to the relatively small revenue for two reasons:
1. solvency
2. capital raises
of which both will impact heavily. Based on forecast expenditure from the last capital raise and cash burn/ ARR they probably have enough money for 6-8 months and if they forego planned acquisitions and USA Kojensi launch they should have enough for another year. If they do have a significant increase in revenue(ARR growth and Sales Contracts) then they should be ok for couple of years(ie revenue approaching coverage of operational expenses).

I agree with you that given your strategy of multi-year holding it's not realistic to put too much weight on the quarterlies other than some trend analysis and progressive milestone achievements in implementation of strategy to achieve their goals. As I have mentioned in the past I also look at it in a context of opportunity cost. I will have to decide whether to hold or bail after the next quarterly/annual reports. If I hold I will be adopting a similar strategy to yours - put in the bottom draw for a couple of years. There are many good opportunities out there however I am also cognizant of Buffet's philosophy

cheers mate!

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G'day mate, I agree with basically everything you've commented on there.

If ARR doesn't improve, or if costs continue to increase regardless of their comments, etc, we should expect either cap raises, or solvency issues, the price should justifiably decrease to reflect that in the short term and management would be deserving of a bit of shin kicking (at least) especially given their strong comments regarding expectations for this quarter.

AR9 Price at posting: 12.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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