Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-47

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steve10

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29/04/22

12:20

Post #: 61099235
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Originally posted by steve10: ↑

$4,893,306 receipts from customers
- $1,936,333 PMOC $2,956,973 GP

$2,956,973 GP / $4,893,306 revenue = 60.4% margin.

Q4 was up 32.8% on Q3 last year so allow +20% QOQ worst case this year = $5.871M similar to Q2 FY22 & as mentioned by DT Q4 FY22 should be similar to Q2 FY22.

$5.871M x 60.4% margin (should be higher as GMV will rise) = $3.546M GP so an additional $589k GP. Expenses will more or less remain fixed so $2.99M cash burn Q3 FY22 - $589k - $750k cost savings per quarter = $1.65M cash burn Q4 FY22. May be $2M if all the $750k saving not realised.

$7.2M cash balance - $1.65M cash burn Q4 FY22 = $5.55M balance end Q4 FY22 & enough funds for another 3 quarters.

Allow +15% QOQ revenue growth for Q1 FY23 = $6.75M revenue x 61% margin = $4.117M GP so an additional $571k GP. Again expenses will remain fixed so $1.65M cash burn - $571k = $1.079M cash burn Q1 FY23. Will have $4.45M balance which is enough for 4 quarters.

Then we have the big one Q2 FY23 so allow +20% QOQ revenue growth = $8.1M revenue x 61% margin = $4.941M GP so an additional $824k GP. Again expenses will remain fixed so $1.079M cash burn - $824k = $255k cash burn Q2 FY23. Will have $4.2M balance which is enough for 16 quarters.

Then Q3 FY23 sales will be seasonally down say to Q1 FY23 levels so $1.079M cash burn for Q3 FY23. Will have about $3.1M balance which is enough for nearly 3 quarters.

Next 12 months cash burn will be about $4.45M plus any one off expenses. They appear to have at least 2 quarters worth of funds in all 4C's during next 12 months so no need for CR.

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Financials are aligning for CR & eBev takeover sometime in first half CY 2023. Fits with eBev timing as well.

DW8 Price at posting: 3.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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