Just cut your losses imo as it’s clear they are no where near inflection. I’ve spoken with a few people in the industry and they mentioned there were a few days in QLD where wholesale prices spiked which would have really hurt this business. Very hard to make money without scale and sales keep going higher but the losses and cash burn keeps going. Something is not right here.
The only two ways to make money here for holders is via M&A and/or crypto mining. Both are low probability plays. For M&A that could happen anytime but is it worth holding through another CR waiting for something that may or may not happen? Crypto looks interesting but the runway to make money is at least 12 months suggesting they’ll need another CR or two before that potentially contributes (if at all).
Saying ‘it can’t go much lower’ generally means it’s going lower. Plus, with the debt providers in there they can turn the screws on equity holders very easily. In effect they could take out the business without a premium as they’re higher up the capital ladder and would have security. Equity holders are massively exposed here and I’ve seen debt providers use that as a way to get companies ‘on the cheap’ - hopefully this is not the case.
Either way, terrible 4C and not surprised they dropped it on a Friday night. Should have sold my LPEO when I cut my heads but thought I’d keep them in case they got acquired. Oh well immaterial anyway.
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