Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-42

I doubt the market reaction will be as extreme this time as it has before, but I don't share your optimism about the market being positive in response to them, and while that's a possibility, I see the risk:reward ratio being quite poor for the next 2-3 quarters.

You mention the possibility of markets turning, I think there's a big risk of a large market correction in the near future and for better or worse that will stop businesses giving TNT business which will harm their bottom line and also a market correction is just clearly going to harm the sentiment around a company like TNT, which would make me wary even if I had confidence that TNT was going to be looking good fundamentally for the next year.

The big issue for me is that the market is conservative, impatient and overly cautious, especially in times like this, so it will be difficult to convince the market to get excited when expenses are increasing but revenue is decreasing for a quarter or two. It's going to be six months before TNT releases a a quarterly showing revenue higher than the previous one and probably a year until it releases a quarterly showing revenue higher than what we saw this week. I just can't see immediately post 'the best news of the year' to be a good time to be holding in a sector like this with a fearful and potentially very nasty macroeconomic situation.

Looking at the next 3-9 months:
The upside - yeah, maybe if shareholders are lucky they'll see a small to moderate increase.

Probably it'll sit there doing little,

The downside - 10c support fails (this could even happen without any macroeconomic strife) and then you're looking at a nasty drop to the next support level. If there's real blood on the economic streets, things could get very ugly for TNT holders. Hopefully this won't happen, but this possibility is more likely and more extreme than the upside.

This quarterly was fairly solid and the figures for the current quarter won't much be on people's minds for a while, so I doubt we'll see any particularly bad movement in the next few weeks anyway, and August may even be a green month for TNT.