@samstunning - interested in your thoughts here as well. I'm a little confused on this one right now (to be completely honest), and I'll tell you why.
The starting point for me here has always been revenue. To move from 3.4Mto 9.6M to 17.0M (FY20 to FY22) is a grand effort, and I think we need to givecredit where credit is due for the generation of revenue. But, generation ofrevenue is only part of the game (particularly when you are facing the ASX andhave a strong reliance on China), and the thing that is killing us right now is"profitable growth".
It's really difficult to do much analysis here, but again, another thing I'mhappy about is that in FY22, we generated an extra 7.4M in revenue, andthe combined increase of R&D, Ads/Marketing, Staff, Admin/Corp costs was amere 82,000. If you told me those two data-points 12 months ago, I'd for surebelieve the share price would be >10c, but alas, we have at the same time pivotedthe business to take on far more exposure to inventory (or so it seems).To me, this has been hidden (or at least downplayed) in the communication, buthas really changed the dynamics of the business (my view), because now thegeneration of revenue needs to be so much higher to generate 'profitablegrowth', and as we have seen quarter-to-quarter, the cashflow has been lumpy(to say the very least).
The other thing that I've really struggled with, is trying to follow thebig-picture strategy. In the quarterlies, seemingly large wins are bandiedaround as if they were common knowledge, and they are all over the map. Are wefocusing on Tmall Stores? Brand Marketing? Distribution to Retailers?Fresh-produce? Middle-man? The company snapshot statement hasn't changed, butthe ability to piece together the company focus and really understand what'success' looks like is becoming hard for me. So, we are now selling Remedydrinks into Aldi... is that massive? I have absolutely no idea, and we aren'tgiven much detail besides, "hey guys - we did this".
So, whilst I think management may have been kicking goals, I reallydon't know how the company is going, and I don't know how to interpret thequarterly. The one thing I can see, is another -660k operating cashflow.... andto that I make a loud "SIGH"...
Let's not forget as well, China has been in lockdown, so yes, ourgrowth has likely been impacted quite heavily as a result. Time will tell, weneed to start hitting heavy numbers as China re-opens. We can't afford to goback to the market for money, IMO it will bury us if we need to cap raiseagain.
With all that said and done, I don't think it's gloom and doom (or at least, Ihope it's not), but this year (FY23) is crunch time. I would love to see a boldmanagement forecast (e.g., 40M top-line) to give us some hope that it's not allabout tightening costs to get to cashflow into the green - let's get this"cash receipts" into 8 figures per quarter and prove out thelong-term on this business model. It's now or never.
See below some snippets from recent quarterlies that have been'confused' on the overall strategy (perhaps I'm just showing my age), and a fewother questions that have not been answered due to a complete lack of detail inmanagement releases.
Q4
- Tik-Tok Flagship Store for large brands (how did we go? Expected 300k ofrevenue in 1st operating quarter)- New Zealand Over the Counter online Pharmacy (new contract, orconnected to original one for Tmall store?)- Remedy distribution channels into ALDI (is this huge? likelyvolumes/generation of profit? is this enduring for the company?)
Q3
- RLG Wine Marketplace (BestWineDeals.com.au) - any progress? First revenueswere expected Q4, did this happen?- Sales receipts for Merino & Co (Wool garments) - any progresssince Feb? - Novus Capital appointment - what have they been doing?
Q2
- Pinduoduo fresh produce store (top 10 status, but what does that mean? Is itsignificant?)- CCTG - This was mentioned as a huge step for RLG, but hasn't been mentionedspecifically since Q2. Are they on track to deliver? Are they connected to anyof the other launches above?
... and whatever happened to the Online Stores - Nuria, Colab, BLIS, Inika,Essano.... are they still around?
... Kadalys... did we ever launch anything?
... Nuria (2-yr deal struck on Apr-20).... did they extend, or drop? How did we go against the $1.3M expected sales?
... FRUTEEC - did that go anywhere? Is it part of Pinduoduo?
... Reids Fruits - how is that connected? Is that part of Pinduoduo?
... Murray River - the contract promised up to 10M revenue... Didn't these guys go out of business, or are we still doing stuff for them? Did / do they owe us money?
(20min delay)
