TNT 0.00% 13.0¢ tesserent limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-22

  1. 5,420 Posts.
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    LOL

    No one is going to want to buy a roll up with teething problems and unproven economics, knowing that further disruption won't help the situation.

    If someone did for some strange reason want to buy TNT, they wouldn't have to pay much of a premium above the current market cap - if you take off the rose-coloured glasses before looking at the chart it doesn't tell a happy story, the price has been on an extremely negative and very consistent trend for two years! In these conditions a takeover is as easy as flup, but on the other side of a coin, a takeover is completely unappealing to anyone.

    If you did get bought out now, you wouldn't receive much more for your shares than you could sell on market for today, so I don't think you would be happy with the situation anyway.

    If TNT is going to be a success it will be under the current management team. Their roll up strategy is very risky and ambitious, they're having a red hot go at it, but no one else is going to want to pay to take that away from them, even at this price. It just doesn't make sense.

    If you're clutching at straws looking for potential scenarios in which you could recover your losses/make a profit on TNT, pretty much the only one with any chance is the current management team continuing what they're doing, being successful in what they're trying to do, make the company profitable, and the share price appreciating. You'll probably need a lot of patience but it might happen. Expecting a takeover is definitely going to disappoint you. Also keep in mind that in a scenario like this, anyone wanting to take TNT over would never just turn up and make an offer, they would inevitably play games to push the price down first. There were obvious times over the last several months going back to June where anyone wanting to make any effort to push the share price below 10c support could have done so. Particularly over the last couple of opportunities including about a week ago, any attempt to do this would have triggered a cascade of stop losses pushing the price down heavily below 10c. The fact that no one bothered to do this shows that no one particularly wants the TNT share price to crash. It has been standing on the edge of that 10c cliff plenty of times since June and no one has had sufficient reason to bother pushing it off. You can be sure that any predator wanting to take over would have done so.

    As a shareholder who wants to make money on TNT (presumably meaning you have faith in the fundamentals, and assuming your faith is well-placed), the last thing you should want is a takeover.
 
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