TNT (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report

Originally posted by Sdaji: ↑

Why is it incredible? Name absolutely any industry going through a boom and you can find individual companies in that industry going broke. Investing in a company is primarily about investing in that company, not that industry.

The market scepticism is completely understandable and was completely predictable. You'd be pretty brave to be buying at the moment and to continue holding you'd either have to be apathetic or have fallen in love or for whatever reason just be committed to sitting and holding unconditionally. Anything could happen but in the short to medium term the downside is clearly more likely and extreme than the upside. Look at the market depth, the bid is at 10.5c and one pip below that at 10c you have the last support, there's almost nothing below it. On the sell side there's plenty of volume right up - clearly plenty of people want to get out. Even if you believed in the fundamentals I can't see any good reason to buy now rather than waiting either to buy in cheaply or to see evidence of the direction starting to turn positive before buying.

You can have all the security breaches you want, but the market won't especially care until it looks like TNT is making a profit. TNT hasn't given the market much reason to trust it, and using excuses for the high expenses isn't going to be convincing; the market is going to wait until it's empirically demonstrated, and at best that's months away. If I start up Sdaji's lock company and there's a spike in houses being broken into, people are not going to automatically invest in Sdaji's lock company, they'll go with the companies demonstrating profitability, or maybe the market will be looking at alarm companies or private security guards. TNT doesn't have any sort of monopoly in cybersecurity, hasn't demonstrated reliable profitability, has a history of figures which are at best mixed and at worst disappointing, and it's an industry where ongoing market share is not guaranteed, especially for a recently-structured roll up.

I don't see anything incredible about the market response to TNT. I think TNT will be lucky to see 10c support hold until the next quarterly.

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I beg to differ. When Morrison announced the liberal government's funding of cyber security and spending a year or two ago, interest in cyber companies surged strongly, and our SP responded too. The media coverage went on for a few days, then slowly faded. This time, the optus and medibank hacks have been headline news on a daily basis for the past couple of weeks, yet TNT stays at 11c. I don't agree our SP is likely to drop below 10c anytime soon, but there seem to be endless sellers around 11-13 c, where are they coming from ?
All imho, dyor