Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-53

Good post.

You're probably right, as an employee, TNT would probably be a good company. I agree, TNT isn't going to go bankrupt any time soon. Dividends? I think it's silly to talk about that at this stage, and if TNT ever does pay dividends it won't be for many years after some radical changes we can't yet realistically anticipate. As you say, margins are slim, profits are small and that's just not a good thing for shareholders. One problem the business has always had is lack of scalability. At the peak of TNT's buying spree when I was bullish (and the market agreed and we were all celebrating our profits) I hoped that TNT could continue the strategy and gain something of a monopoly in some areas of the industry, but dilution became an increasing issue (I wasn't especially concerned about that at first because TNT's aggressive strategy was either going to work or not, but going nothing was going to leave TNT in a festering heap and it probably wasn't going to continue as a going concern for much longer). Management's strategy did save the company, but it hasn't turned it into a "bullet train", it has turned it into something which will probably make a moderate profit and be a viable company. That's great compared to a train wreck bleeding money and unable to survive, but just not that exciting to anyone other than someone on the payroll or an existing shareholder desperate to justify their investment.

Earlier in Friday's session I saw the total buy orders at 10 and 10.5c at less than 3 million, and as you say, the sell wall was absolutely tremendous (that has been steadily growing lately). The buy queue did recover a bit especially at 10.5c, but next week the market is going to get pretty jittery about TNT after seeing it fail to even hold its ground when the NASDAQ was up an astonishing 7%. I certainly wouldn't have been surprised to see TNT go up on Friday and that probably would have been my guess at 9.30AM Melbourne/Sydney time, but falling a little wasn't surprising either, and given that's what happened it's an indicator of what to expect next week. Anything could happen, that's always true, but it pays to base your moves on what's most likely to happen.

I recently said the downside is more extreme than the upside for TNT. It surely seems that's even more true now.

All in my own opinion, etc etc, of course.