Its a pretty simple assessment RCE (despite the long post)......

Its a pretty simple assessment RCE (despite the long post)...

Trying to make a deliberate effort to add value and intelligence back to the thread - seems like it is needed. If you are negative or pessimistic and can add value, please contribute to the conversation, I welcome it and will not berate a logical argument and point of view.

If all you have to say is "its Doomed" or "James is a whatever" then get beck in your box. You know who you are and have read your comments plenty of times and don't need it on repeat - we get it, you bought in at $1.40 and are not happy with the performance.

Now lets add some value;

SP is beaten up due to low cash position and CR being needed By march / april 2023 based on the available information from the Qtly. Oh no they need a cap raise, they always needed a bloody cap raise between now and March 2023. The value of the company shouldn't retrace because they need cash, but they often do and herein lies an opportunity to buy when its cheap and before catalysts. DYOR.....

Is it crazy that despite positive safety results (single dose) the SP is down considerably (and half what it was in Jan / Feb 2022). What has changed other than cash burn (this was expected - a known known) the only thing I can think of is the topical burns treatment has fallen off the radar and the single dose safety took longer than expected... Dropping topical seems like a cash saving initiative to me, its not going to be a big earner anyway, but could it get to market quickly, sure but probably not without a CR anyway so shelve it and focus on the whales over the sardines in the portfolio.. Despite this (topical burns) falling to the wayside, the company is progressing, and IMHO they are well positioned for a licencing deal in 2023 (subject to results of trials). Will they need a CR before they get a licencing deal, yes most likely. Unless a big pharma comes in early and tries to low ball pre the multi dose safety or the UTI multi dose trial...

I think that the multi dose safety will half open the door for a licencing deal - all the clinical studies show efficacy, this is likely repeatable in human, but only relevant if it is safe! single dose studies are a great first step but not enough to get a big Pharma deal like that mentioned in the investor presentation, not yet I don't think. They will gladly pay more for a more sure thing. Like putting a bet on a horse iwhile its still in the gates vs if it is 5 lengths ahead coming round the final bend.. (nice Melbourne Cup reference)...

Cash at end of Q was circa $5.7m.
Ex the one off payments, then Cash Outflow was $4.5m for the quarter.
Expect coming quarter to be at least $4.5m again for R&D, salaries and Corp and Admin (at least - it could be more as studies are ongoing).

But.... the company has forecast a net cash inflow quarter. So at end of December going to have more cash than they do now (from whatever sources, R&D and other). I cant see R&D being more than $3.2m (43.5% of FY2022 R&D expenditure)... So where is the rest of the cash inflow coming from?? Is this a hint to a deal, i dont think so per reasons above, maybe some grant funding? .. Or, is this a hint on a cap raise in the quarter... Or are they cutting costs to less than than the R&D rebate. Hard to know how they will be CF positive in the Dec qtr, but anything other than a CR or slowing R&D to make it so is only a positive.. However, if it is a CR then that overhang is done and mgmt and the market can move on.

In terms of news flow:

Q4 2022 multiple dosing safety study commences - don't know how long this is going to take or the escalation in dosing so not sure when we see results. Single dose took some time, but they should be able to skip the escalations i would think and shorten up the timeline... IMHO, This is the key safety data (the single dose safety just opened this door).... This is required to progress the multiple dose P2 trials for UTI in H1 2023, and sepsis obviously, and probably everything else of big value in the clinical pipeline. At the end of the day more severe infections will require a multi dose treatment regime, and these infections have a higher need for new antibiotic treatments and are therefore worth more $ per treatment to the market.... this is where all the money is to be made... This trial has a high chance of success based on results from single dose, and the excretion of r327 in Urine (i.e. low cumulative build up in the system it would appear from this).. The chance of success is not priced in by the SP IMHO... DYOR this is just my view...

Q1 2023 Single dose UTI efficacy study (Phase 1) - this is a potential catalyst for SP. Chance of success is again very high, it is safe, it works in vitro (in the lab), works in vivo (in rats), We now know its safe in humans in single dose.... However, I don't know how much value there is in single dose IV for mild UTI due to compliance (i.e. who will take an IV for HR for a mild UTI)... BUT... what it does do is pave the way for Multi Dose UTI..... Further study in mucosal or nasal spray, or tablet can be done to crack the bulk UTI treatment market. It is a massive market!

H1 2023 multiple dose UTI efficacy study. (Phase 2) - this is a bigger catalyst but, if the multi dose safety is successful, and the single dose UTi is successful then the SP will have rerated before this trial IMHO... It becomes more likely that this will be successful if the prior studies are successful... in other words.. IF you want to make $$ here, need to be in before the UTI single dose and the multi dose safety are completed IMHO. But invest knowing the risks, there are no guarantees of success.

Now to my famous rants - Those that are bagging out on the Coy and slow execution obviously don't understand the process and regulatory hurdles to get drugs to market. And yes sometime management make mistakes or have a false start (I think topical treatment in this case). I am sure there is a product there but they have decided to take a different path... Management has dropped the ball here by not communicating... To much sales pitch not enough honest coms IMHO.

Ultimately, biotechs and mining companies often overshoot (SP performance) early on with promising early indications or results, but retrace as short term holders get impatient and its a self fulfilling SP decline. Weakness creates weakness and here we are... And here am I bottom feeding on pessimism of a market that is only looking at the risks in RCE. I too look at the risks, but I am weighing them against the upside and I am a buyer for a half a position now, and will double down on a CR ( I just want to have skin in the game as I dont want to get caught with none, and ther is upside surprise... I am happy to be in 20% too early than miss the upside in other words...

GLTAH.

Hope I have added some value, I am sure I've missed some key things on the buy and sell side... Fire away!

Thanks.