Hi all, reading through this thread today…my thoughts are below and all IMHO. But yeah what a shocker of a report. No hiding now.
Commercial Viability –This has been questioned many times in past by many Coppers. Research into the financialreports and announcements will show that a lot of past reported revenue growthhas been achieved through acquisitions with very little attributed to the growth ofthe native DUB product. Meaning there is very little organic growth of thenative DUB product to be found.
Partners - The onboarding of partners or subscribers is not the issue here, the issue is getting them to perceive value in payingfor the native DUB product. There is little if no risk fora big Telco to sign up for a partner deal with DUB because if customers don’t see the value and pay then DUB doesn’t get paid. Simple.
Churn Rate - You needto be mindful when asking how many customers have churned away because there isroom for a creative response here. Maybe customers don’t need to actually churnaway, they just stop paying, maybe the real question is how many subscribersare actively being billed as of last month. You may need to be pointier in the questioningtactics here to arrive at the real answer.
Expenses - Operatingcosts as a trend continue to increase quarter on quarter, year on year. Thiswas sold to investors as a cheap scalable cloud solution that once the up-frontcosts were paid then expenses would drop off. Not correct. Expenses continue toincrease and when viewed in the context of the last 5 or 6 quarters reflect an awfulpicture.
ARR – This formulaand reporting numbers have already been proven to be flawed and significantly outof whack. Reported ARR has never been reflected in 12-month forward receipts.So clearly too much creative accounting applied here, and DUB finally gotcalled in this.
Financial Reporting –When you switch quarter to quart on which metrics you report and graph in the announcementsand 4C’s you know something isn’t right.
ZEPO’S - Executivesalaries and the ZEPO giveaways are really hurting a company that is increasingits expenses at a much higher rate than receipts. This does look a littlelike a Ponzi scheme.
Cap Raise – There isno way they will be able to go back to the market in the next couple of years for anotherCAP. That ship sailed when they raised 100M for acquisition and thenchanged direction which was most likely a result of needing the funds more immediately to cover the significant and increasing cash burn (see below).
Historical Quarterly reports:
SEP21 receipts IN:$9.1M, expenses OUT: $14.9M (BURN: $5.8M).
DEC21 receipts IN:$5.6M, expenses OUT: $20.6M (BURN: $15.0M).
MAR22 receipts IN:$8.5M, expenses OUT: $18.7M (BURN: $10.2M).
JUN22 receipts IN:$6.7M, expenses OUT: $19.5M (BURN: $12.8M).
SEP22 receipts IN:$9.5M, expenses OUT: $20.0M (BURN: $10.2M).
DEC22 receipts IN:$8.3M, expenses OUT: $25.4M (BURN: $17.0M) = OUCH! $25M expenses on $8M receipts, not looking good 5-6 years in...
Purely all IMHOand DYOR as always. But tell me I am wrong?
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Hi all, reading through this thread today…my thoughts are below...
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