Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-2

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    Just revisiting this given the share price action... With ~90m shares on issue, we have a market cap of $18m at 20c. In my mind, I'm contemplating what it would take for the share price to double from here. To get to a $36m market cap (40c) on a PE of 15x, we'd need NPAT of $2.4m. That's EBIT of around $3.4m. With an EBIT margin of around 30%, that requires a top line of $11.3m.If we do a similar calc, but on a PE of 30x, we'd need NPAT of $1.2m, or EBIT of $1.7m, which requires a top line of $5.7m, (assuming a 30% EBIT margin).That compares to a current top line (run rate basis) of ~$3m. So if the top line was to grow at 25% pa, we'd reach $5.7m rev in 3 years time. (I.e. 100% share price uplift in 3 years, if those assumptions hold). But if the stock was to trade on a PE of 15x, it would take 6 years for the same outcome (share price to double).Either way, that's a better outcome than the long-term average of the ASX All Ords (doubling every 7-8 years) - but it relies on execution success (30% EBIT margin, strong compounding growth of 25% YoY) and so this is a risk. These calcs also don't take into account the strong cash balance of ~$6m (given the PE multiple approach works off NPAT, not EV). Interested in other's thoughts.
    Last edited by T.E.P.: 12/05/23
 
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