ENA 0.00% 27.0¢ ensurance ltd

Thanks @LHR, I'm not yet fully convinced myself that they can do...

  1. 3,387 Posts.
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    Thanks @LHR, I'm not yet fully convinced myself that they can do 25% CAGR top-line growth organically over the next 3 years, but I think they are on track so far (GWP is up ~30% YTD so far versus the pcp). I support the current management team and they are steadily executing. Let's see how the next few years play out. Regarding the share price, it continues to be range bound (between ~19c and ~25c) with some recent selling pressure. I think what has ultimately happened is that some shareholders weren't aligned with i) the decision to sell the UK business and ii) the decision to invest in KOBA and would have preferred the business to be at a bigger scale with lower margins but growing and getting closer to that $100m in GWP mark. As opposed to, currently, a smaller entity (AU only), cashed up ($6m, no debt), with higher margins (hopefully). As such, Mr Market is reassessing the multiples of ENA -> and it has shifted from multiples in line with larger comps (PSI, AUB, SDF) at 5x EV/rev and 18x EV/EBIT (25c), down to a discount (perhaps fair, perhaps not) at 3x EV/rev and 10x EV/EBIT (19c) (note: those calcs assume ENA has an underlying EBIT margin of 30%, which is yet to be seen - we'll be able to confirm or otherwise once we have a full year of operations with ENA AUS only). Obviously some risk v reward at play here with ENA as with any investment. Everyone needs to arrive at their own investment decision and I'm not here to convince anyone either way - just documenting my own investment thoughts and seeking out debate to test my thesis. Time will tell whether I am right or wrong.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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