I don't doubt your judgement, but this article suggests EBITDA multiples (which would be similar to EBIT due to minimal D&A) of 16x occurring in private transactions in the marketplace from either private equity buyers, wholesalers or reinsurers. Ultimately, I think this is a long-term play, you either back the current management team for steady execution over the next 3-5 years or you do not. So far, the Aussie business has been growing well. If they keep executing, shareholders will hopefully receive considerably more than a market average return (~10+% p.a.) over that time period from current levels but it is not without risk. Personally, I'd also like to see no further strategic investments (i.e. KOBA) and instead a doubling down on profitable growth. I'd love to see them hit a meaningful NPAT in FY24, and maybe a small dividend too, that's what most shareholders will want in the current macroeconomic environment. https://mga.aon.com/2022-mgas-on-the-move/manda.
