This is very similar to my Method 2. And I agree it certainly...

This is very similar to my Method 2. And I agree it certainly makes sense and is a possibility, but it just doesn't smell right.

DRO has had a steady income of about $8 M per quarter for the first three quarters and which does not seem to include any of the $33 M contract. That run-rate looks like continuing into Q4 which gives 33 + 8 = $41 M. Adding that to Q1-Q3 of $23 M gives a FY of $64 M. The run rate might be a little higher (maybe up to $12 M) but already broadly matches with the expected FY result.

The roughly possible $30 M (so far) that carries over into next year would presumably be delivered in Q1. My question is where does it come from?

As far as I can see there are only the following possibilities

1) Increase of small contracts by a factor 4
2) There is another big contract which DRO has not told the market
3) DRO did a dodgy - the $51 M is from the beginning of the quarter, not from October 20

Of these possibilities 1 seems extremely unlikely because of the size of the increase. If it were true, we would also have seen some pretty strong evidence of a ramp up in Q3 and Q4. 2 seems even more unlikely because if this occurred DRO would have done something against its own interests by failing to disclose good news. It would have also broken the law by not disclosing material information. 3 seems by far the most likely since DRO could say that this was the Q3 report so of course the $51 M is from the beginning of Q3 and claim people put two and two together and got five. That would have been dodgy but management has a pretty easy out. Another reason that 3 is the most likely scenario is that if DRO were going to have revenue of $30 M in Q1 next year, the stock would fly on the news. But it didn't. Also, if 3 were true your number for Q1 would reduce to $12 M, a very believable number. The $30 M argument just doesn't seem to stack up.

I have no way of demonstrating that this is right or wrong and I don't claim any kind of certainty. I am just trying to join the dots and work out what seems reasonable. I think I am leaving my 2024 contract estimate at $8 M and base my actions on that until further info comes to hand.

Thanks for an excellent and well thought out post. It is refreshing to have a discussion with someone who wants to discuss the issues rather than dump lies and false accusations to somehow "win" an argument and further their personal agenda.