I'm relooking at my holdings in this company and wondering do I sell or buy more? I look at the math and think, is it time now to just jump ship or see this play out. I've sold most of mine on the way down, tried to trade a few a while back but now deciding where to from here?
Japan looks promising with David over there at the moment, lets hope we see more sales. It's likely that we have sold more to Vitrolife KK to supply more clinics. I don't think the ASX will allow us to keep Ann sales each time and nor should the company have to Ann every time they sell some, so it'll be "watch the financials"" from this point. We know its the best method and it's starting to get used.
So the Artificial insemination (AI) in cattle is actually huge. I hadn't really looked into this process and how widely it is used. Here are some interesting facts about AI in cattle worldwide.
In the US and other Western countries the number of AI cooperatives increased rapidly. Nowadays more than 90% of dairy cows are artificially inseminated in the Netherlands, Denmark and the United Kingdom. (Interestingly the same with pigs 90% another market to look at?)
The growth figures sound impressive. In the 2018-2019 financial year, the Brazilian AI market grew by 19%. But that pales in comparison with the 2019-2020 financial year: the AI market grew by another 31% to reach about 22 million doses.
Australia dairy farms did 1.5 Million doses
While it's hard to find I believe it's close to 100 Million doses each year across dairy and Beef world wide. The cost for this process is....????? When it comes to costs for AI, many beef cattle are bred using an estrus synchronization program. I am including those costs for this discussion. With a cost of about $20 for synchronization, $20-$40 for semen and about $20 if you need to hire a technician, you are at about $60-$80 without adding in labor.2 Feb 2022
So my guess is that the December CR will be done on the results of the AI port. I re-watched the presentation and Alison said that just a 5% improvement would be significantly worth it for the farmers. One of my questions was, why would the farmers use this and its of course cost, but mostly end results, more pregnancies more $$ for the farmers. Professor Aitkin answered my question and he felt very confident that they'd learnt from his previous testing and that the new system was going to be beneficial. Well they will be looking for results shortly as the 150 cows will have been AI'd and December will be results time. With that we need a good spike to ensure as little dilution as possible. At these levels it's crazy to think, 2cps will mean 50% better off for all SH come the CR. We know the CR is coming, I'm thinking it may be the right time to gamble on the ASX Casino and on Professor Aitkin.
I bought 1.8 Million today and a million earlier at 1.1* will buy a few more million if they come up for sale at these prices because December is not far away. I hope that some of the top 20 take a risk and also protect their holdings. The best way to buy cheap shares is to protect yourself from a large number of buying at really low prices in a CR.
Anyway, that's my thoughts, been in this a long time and never have I bought at these levels in those years. We are closer to success than ever before but our SP is the lowest in my time, go figure? So, my thoughts are if MEM gets $3 per AI done, and we get 10% of the market first season we enter, well that'll be close to $30 Million in revenue. Not at all bad for a $10 Million MC small cap?
We have some good, experienced people helping Alison out now. She's not alone (sorry, thank god!) so lets see if this little company can make inroads in Japan and AI port before the end of 2023. Santa rally instead of Alisons last Xmas present she gave SH
(20min delay)