you're right. They were my first thoughts when I looked at it some months back except the 45X would be $0.8 not $0.6 so worst case a loss of 20c per KG with a ~3% probability of happening when you run all the scenarios.
If you make $7 per ton, $0.6 from 45X, but your Opex is $8 then yeah... that's a situation. At the same time if the stars align, the profit margin is fantastic.
What surprised me was the opex cost in general. SYR are saying they can make natural at $3.64/kg which assumes Balama at full production so add on another 10% which still makes it ~$4/kg
you're right. They were my first thoughts when I looked at it...
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