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3.2¢ biotron limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-29

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a2zz

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26/04/24

12:06

Post #: 73522433
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Originally posted by GiddyYup: ↑

Good Morning A2.

Difficult question since there are a lot of moving factors which I suspect will play out in slow motion over the next 2 months but I suspect the answer is likely to be "Yes". Here's why .....

In today's announcement they have reset expectations for results to be end of this quarter. No longer are they saying "coming weeks". CR needs to be completed before end of the quarter since money looks like running out mid July based on current burn rate.

As I wrote the other day, based on their past behavior I expect the issue price to be in the vicinity of 4.5c (Either 4 and 5 if they chose to round it off). SP will likely fall based on the fact that holders can buy new shares cheaper than on market, same as always happens. Company knows this so usually attaches options as an added incentive to pay up.

The narrative created is that you are being given a chance not only support the company to get these trials over the line and put the company into a strong financial position going into commercialization discussions but also the unwritten and obvious pull that this is a chance to get "cheap" shares and options right before the finish line. Longer term followers will find this rings some bells.

Now, if they release results early (and by early I mean only 18 months late) and the results disappoint then my answer will likely be no. But truthfully I'm not expecting to see results before the CR so I think the carrot of extra tickets in the BIT lottery will remain key to what is about to happen.

As I said to Lux yesterday, I expect most will find that they have been backed into a corner with little choice but to pay up. It will be framed as an opportunity. Some will already be stretched from the last CR having taken up extras. Some will find that they were already in as far as they were comfortable with and will be forced to make a difficult decision. Others will just throw money money at it and say "in for a penny, in for a pound". Overall however I expect them to get the money since the majority of us here are likely gamblers by nature and nobody want the undertaker to get their cheap shares.

I hope this helps.

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Thanks GY!
Infinite time being taken by CROs to analyze the results has been an opportunity for them to consume time and cash, and hold a carrot to take more cash.
We did not see any cash preservation strategy by biotron as found in other compnaies.

Should an underwrite be interested given the nature of the biotron business?

Last edited by a2zz: 26/04/24

BIT Price at posting: 6.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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