Spot on.
Q2 was a record and to think that each new quarter will be a record is a misunderstanding of how agriculture works. Way too early to tell whether imports are having any impact on ECS. If you think about it logically, they are selling everything they produce but can't produce enough so it's a production problem which should be addressed with their expansion. If imports were starting to have an impact then we would see it clearly in two different areas:
- Inventory will increase and/or inventory write-downs
- Margins will decrease
Instead we've seen the opposite in the half-yearly. Margins increased as economies of scale started to kick-in and inventory write-downs decreased. Cost of production at ECS is below the majors who are sending "cheap imports" to Australia so they are more than capable of holding their own, they also don't have to contend with all of the costs involved in shipping product halfway around the world which isn't cheap given the rise in oil prices.
I have a contact who is a member of the lobby group to parliament for Cannabis and they are urging the trade minister to follow Israel's lead in investigating Canada over illegal dumping. His view is that if Israel makes a finding of illegal dumping then it's almost certain Australia will follow suite and potential tariffs will be levied against product from Canada.
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