AL3 4.55% 6.3¢ aml3d limited

Quarterly revenue is a little lack luster, revenue to date is...

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    Quarterly revenue is a little lack luster, revenue to date is good at close to 7 mil. Loss of 700k is good considering they reinvested 500k for R&D for the new machine and are hiring new staff. I doubt they would be hiring without the need for it, so any growth is good I suppose. If the company is reinvesting in R&D and hiring new staff in this area, my guess is Andy is behind it and trust that this is necessary and a good decision for the medium and long term. 3mil in the bank isn't bad, I'm assuming after the raise take away 3mil for the US facility, and they have close to 4mil left over for working capital.

    Again, reiterating their confidence to deliver more contracts by the end of FY24. Interestingly, in doing so this time they emphasize confidence in delivering defense contracts back home in AU. Perhaps the BAE contract is going smoothly and there are signals from the ADF and through the DSTG contract that following on from this work they can deliver something more material.

    They again reiterate a sense of confidence around entering the aerospace and oil & gas industry soon however, I think it's best to put this to the side and evaluate them solely on their performance in maritime and defense as this is supposed to form the foundation of the business before expanding into other sectors. The US facility is again highlighted as an enabling factor for delivering sustained contracts in the US defense industry through ITAR contracts and entering other sectors.

    I'm expecting to see 3-5mil revenue next quarter, if the number is closer to 3, I am assuming there is significant lag in executing contracts perhaps due to US contracts being completed in AU atm. The new machine is exciting and has more potential than the fit for purpose protype being developed for Austal. I see the Austal contract as an investment in R&D contributing to the development of their new machine rather than a profitable contract.

    SP should be doing better but we have no timeline for the facility nor the new machine that I am speculating is near completion. Hopefully by the end of May we get some more information around the facility and have the new machine ready to operate for FY25.

    TTT is justifying a 60mil market cap despite a weaker balance sheet and significant dilution. However, she has a clearer timeline and a material partnership and has delivered enough to justify expectations of future growth.

    While AML is achieving significant milestones, achieving growth and has strengthened the balance sheet, she hasn't delivered enough or given enough information to justify expectations of future growth. Hopefully this begins to change over the next 3 months. One of the biggest things we need is the timeline on the US facility, if it can't be delivered in CY24, then it's likely growth will be slow but steady.

    Despite all the uncertainty, I think we can take back 7 cents after the raise is completed and justify a 20mil~ market cap with a little more news.

    Not financial advice DYOR.
 
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