Hey Kev, TBH I have a feeling IO's annoyed enough as it is! Not necessarily by shareholders, just by the way the current situation has evolved. That's evident from the various webinars - he's pissed off and frustrated. But he's not curled up in the corner crying about it and doing nothing to turn it around. They were moving along quite nicely - and everyone was happy - until the program delays derailed momentum. If the RaaS webinars etc are to be believed - and I don't see how they could not be - they are doing everything they can to resolve things as fast as they can to make sure this never happens again - diversifying the customer base.
The issue with naming customers and discussing levels of engagement seems to apply across the board at the very early stages of engagement - the Tier 1 Aussie mining company isn't yet named, nor the Tier 1 Aussie global O&G company, though there are enough hints to help identify who they are. That will change very quickly when e-Commerce drop a bomb of a client in the EMEA. I say when, because I think it's a given, otherwise why engage in the first place? (And IO was very bullish in the RaaS/Coffee shop pressos, taken with a grain of salt or not.) Let alone when any of the many other customer program/initiatives they have in play come to material fruition. And yes, one swallow doesn't a summer make, but get a flock and suddenly we're seeing something different. They also "expect to receive further program awards during calendar 2024" from the A$3M customer. That's just one of many opportunities.
I no longer have any emotion about it one way or the other. As far as I'm concerned, it's a binary outcome - fail or prosper. The middle ground of meandering along as a bit player I include in the former and isn't an attractive proposition. If I thought that were likely I would sell and move on. No point in hanging around. Obviously, I don't. Not because my crystal ball is perfect aligned with my confirmation bias, simply because - IMHO - it does suggest there is sufficient evidence to show there are significant material developments being worked on simultaneously right now, and they have been for some time. Sooner or later something has to give. It's inconceivable they could detail such things in the quarterlies and webinars if it were all a fantasy, or worse, deliberate obfuscation. The customers wouldn't allow it. Neither would the Board nor the likes of Rob Newman and Damon Fieldgate. Not that RN's on the Board...
So, if it IS an emerging turnaround success story, the only parameters left - for me - are time and quantum. From these MC levels, there is a bounty of quantum to be had when the stars realign. I'm also cognisant of how fraught turnaround stories can be. The core holding from years past is now free-carried. I was buying in the 8's and 5's and 4's in expectation the delays would have resolved sooner. I missed the 3's but wouldn't be surprised to see another (brief) opportunity. Averaging down into a critically wounded company can be fatal. Been there, done that. That possibly makes me stupid. In this case I'm happy to back myself, the company and management, and see where it goes.
