ECS 4.76% 2.0¢ ecs botanics holdings ltd

End of the day, the ECS share price is determined by people...

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  1. 367 Posts.
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    End of the day, the ECS share price is determined by people buying and people selling the share. As it stands, NTA as of Dec-23 was 2.76c (~30m in assets), after dilution we are looking more like 2.35c.

    If we go by the NTA increase from Dec-22 to Dec-23 (0.52cps) at a diluted factor (.43cps) and half that. We look at a diluted NTA at this next 6 month period of 2.56cps. This is without factoring in the substantial increase in infrastructure investment since the capital raise was completed, in the Annual report, I’d expect this number to be closer to 2.7c. Now on a purely statistical basis, would it be sound to invest at 1.6c… A company generating minimum $20m revenues per year (55k/day) with over $30m in assets, with no actual debt repayments.

    ECS spent $2.5m in the past 12 months on property, plant and equipment. Which presumably, are yet to realise net incomes. If we halted investment in that, we would still be producing more cannabis than we currently are. So -$2.5m to the cash expenditure, increase sales by say a conservative 10%… now you’re looking at a cash flow positive position of $3.2m. This is with the same staff and production costs. Break it down like this, and it’s evident that ECS is a cash flow positive business spending as much as is reasonable on increasing production.

    This is why I continue to add to my holdings. Because I believe that the market genuinely does not understand the value proposition. They do not understand the market for the ECS products. It is being heavily oversold on a lack of inherent understanding. And those who believe in their investment thesis and have reasonable data to back it up will be the ones who will ultimately be rewarded for their efforts.
 
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