IMO, the better relative value comparison is mkt cap not SP, regardless of consolidation etc. Current NEU mkt cap is $2.1b vs. ATH $16m. A $1b mkt cap for ATH would see the share price at 12.5c based on current SOI. Share consolidation may well have an impact on price but long term game is FDA approval, commercialisation and monetisation of the drug.
If the $1b annual sales is the high watermark, the mkt cap would be several multiples of this IMO, so we can all do the math.Even based on current information and progress, the mkt cap should be at least 5x higher than it is (again IMO), but I think the company has mismanaged its capitalisation, funding and messaging.
The latest ATM raise of an additional 75m shares on the day of the Open Label trial came across as desperate and gave the market the sense, rightly or wrongly, they will raise more funds sooner rather than later, despite their assertions to the contrary. Sometimes you can be too conservative and this is what I think they have done.
A partnership deal, conditional on the outcome of Phase II would certainly result in a much needed re rating.
ATH Price at posting:
0.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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