You’re funny Werdplaya, I’m not dismissing valid critiques at all, it’s becoming clear to me you may not be able to overlook your emotional biases.
I’ll try breaking things down for you so you can understand, maybe it will help. Let’s look at the data in context, beyond a line-item cost or year-over-year revenue:
1. Cost Cuts vs. Old Model:
True, Q2 year-over-year might not look like a massive reduction. But the real shift is that AHF shut down low-margin fresh milk lines, trimming overhead tied to that operation. Those savings may not fully show up in the short-term numbers yet especially when you”re pivoting to a different product (infant formula) that has up-front costs before revenue ramps.
2. Revenue Gap:
Yes, revenue is similar for now. That’s because AHF’s new infant formula strategy hasn’t fully kicked in yet the product isn’t in major distribution channels. Comparing ‘same old sales’ to a future premium line is like checking last year’s budget airline prices against this year’s business-class fares before the upgrade has launched.
3. Previous vs. Current Management:
The pivot away from fresh milk, ex-a2 Milk veterans on board, and the ‘Future’ brand formula are all changes the old management never attempted. If you label that ‘identical performance’, it ignores the difference between inheriting a stale model vs. building a new premium product that takes time (and yes, costs) to launch.
4. PCP Comparisons:
I’m not ‘spinning’ PCP data. I fully acknowledge that last year’s Q2 had a revenue bump, and so does this year’s Q2. But the context is different fresh milk vs. premium formula readiness. If you’re strictly comparing old and new management by final revenue, of course they look the same until the new product starts contributing.
5. Future Outlook:
We agree the numbers are ‘hopeful’ for now, no one’s claiming the new product is in full swing today. The difference is, if AHF nails distribution in China (like a2 did in its early days), the margin upside is far greater than any minimal cut in overhead on a dying milk line. That’s not spin it’s a real pivot strategy we’ll be able to judge by actual sales soon enough.
Mate, just labelling every forward-looking point as ‘spin’ overlooks that major brand pivots don’t show up overnight in PCP comparisons. Let’s revisit this conversation after the infant formula launch data starts rolling in.
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