Someone who pays to have people see their posts is inherently biased, wouldn't you agree?
1. Cost Cuts vs. Old Model:
True, Q2 year-over-year might not look like a massive reduction. But the real shift is that AHF shut down low-margin fresh milk lines, trimming overhead tied to that operation. Those savings may not fully show up in the short-term numbers yet especially when you”re pivoting to a different product (infant formula) that has up-front costs before revenue ramps.
Exactly - they have not meaningfully cut any costs yet, and it remains to be seen if any changes they have made will reduce costs.
2. Revenue Gap:
Yes, revenue is similar for now. That’s because AHF’s new infant formula strategy hasn’t fully kicked in yet the product isn’t in major distribution channels. Comparing ‘same old sales’ to a future premium line is like checking last year’s budget airline prices against this year’s business-class fares before the upgrade has launched.
But I wasn't comparing anything to future products - how would I? You are the one that keeps bringing up the new product, when it is irrelevant for current revenues. Part of the management's responsibility is to sell the products it currently makes. AHF current management is doing no better job at this than its former management. And the success of its future products remains to be seen. 3. Previous vs. Current Management:
The pivot away from fresh milk, ex-a2 Milk veterans on board, and the ‘Future’ brand formula are all changes the old management never attempted. If you label that ‘identical performance’, it ignores the difference between inheriting a stale model vs. building a new premium product that takes time (and yes, costs) to launch.But as I understand it, the previous management DID launch a 'Future' brand formula, at great cost, and it failed. So indeed the similarities do continue on that front. Why on earth they retained the same branding beats me. But my issue is less with the product itself and more with company's choice of distributor (Andy Zhang and Mutree - which less face it, is a rebrand of AZ Global). Zhang has a track record of massive distribution failure for the past 5 years. It is through his partnership with Nathan that he is able to keep getting more bites at the cherry, as people keep buying the 'we can be A2M all over again' story.
4. PCP Comparisons:
I’m not ‘spinning’ PCP data. I fully acknowledge that last year’s Q2 had a revenue bump, and so does this year’s Q2. But the context is different fresh milk vs. premium formula readiness. If you’re strictly comparing old and new management by final revenue, of course they look the same until the new product starts contributing.
That is all I ever said I was doing - comparing their performance in revenue AND costs. You are the one who wanted to 'educate' me otherwise.
As for context, the former management was similarly attempting to get the Future formula brand off the ground as well. It was also the previous management that discontinued fresh dairy processing and sales at Camperdown and that was in 2022. The company was selling infant formula back then in 1H24 as it is now in 1H25 and the performance has been much the same under the current management as it was under the old one.
5. Future Outlook:
We agree the numbers are ‘hopeful’ for now, no one’s claiming the new product is in full swing today. The difference is, if AHF nails distribution in China (like a2 did in its early days), the margin upside is far greater than any minimal cut in overhead on a dying milk line. That’s not spin it’s a real pivot strategy we’ll be able to judge by actual sales soon enough.
The market conditions for A2M's early success are simply no longer the same today. That is the massive fact being ignored by you and the 'ex-A2 pros'. Trying to transplant a successful strategy from 2016-2018 into 2025 is only good for one thing - fleecing investors with a good story. I like to consider myself someone who changes my view when the evidence presents itself. The evidence has shown on multiple occasions that Zhang and Nathan not been able to successfully distribute and sell a premium A2 formula brand in the current market environment, even with far greater resources at their disposal than they do now.
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