Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-7

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arg1

61 Posts.

28/04/25

17:50

Post #: 78828431
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Originally posted by TT128: ↑

For me, the results is very positive with strong international growth. The ok bit is our domestic AU market which we all know it’s a mature and more stable market.

Overall bubs is a growth business with YoY growth of 50% or greater.

Highlights this qtr
- USA quarterly net revenue3 of $10.8m, up 48% on pcp (Q3 FY24: $7.3m)

- China quarterly net revenue3 of $5.7m, up 185% on pcp (Q3 FY24: $2.0m)

- Australia quarterly net revenue3 of $4.6m, up 2% on pcp (Q3 FY24: $4.5m)

- ROW quarterly net revenue3 of $2.1m, up 50% on pcp (Q3 FY24: $1.4m)

What we know
- Bubs MC is $100MForecast FY25 revenue = $102M
- Current share price = $0.12 (12c)

Key Observations
- Price-to-Sales ratio (P/S) = Market Cap / Revenue Forecast= $100M / $102M= roughly 0.98xA P/S ratio near 1x is pretty low for a branded consumer goods company, even an infant formula business — especially if it’s showing strong international growth as noted (USA +48%, China +185%, ROW +50%).

- Generally:Branded food companies (especially growth-focused ones) usually trade at P/S of 2–3x (sometimes higher if profitable or nearing profitability).A 1x P/S suggests the market is either very sceptical about future growth, worried about profitability, or there is some balance sheet risk.
- Fair Value Estimate:If you assume Bubs deserves even a 1.5x P/S (still conservative for a growth company), then:Fair Market Cap = 1.5 × $102M = $153MImplied Share Price = (153/100) × 12c = 18c.

Hence, why Ord Min and others have a price target of 20c or more on bubs fair value.

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i guess the real view is how the market responded to the result

BUB Price at posting: 12.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 15.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $138.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17500	16.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
15.0¢	4700	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	17500	0.160
7	516670	0.155
25	1151251	0.150
17	2280505	0.145
19	412688	0.140

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.150	4700	2
0.155	88600	3
0.160	418456	10
0.165	1269491	15
0.170	3137997	35

Last trade - 09.37am 18/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

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Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-7

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Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-7

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