np @GT55agree but your just saying what id already...

np @GT55

agree but your just saying what id already acknowledged

what you said is precisely why cashflow risk wars with capital value and market tends to discount cap values whenever its pricing possible dilution risk

- so its all about picking your spots in terms of timing the exposure to the PM price cycle + making sure you size your exposure in case you get it wrong

one of the peace of mind aspects of a mill though is a CR is generally always viable - so if you get timing wrong you can usually trade out so long as you are holding equity rather than leverage CFDs etc

when you're trading at very steep discount to NTA - the dilution of a CR is a short term annoyance - so long as you arent buying a permanently falling knife - but that is a big risk at the end of a metal price cycle - not at the beginning.

and once the perceived short term cash risk is gone - typically there's a rebound of some substance toward NTA

but typically Ive found stocks with this kind of setup usually bottom and rebound reasonably significantly well before that - while most investors are still fearfully waiting on the sidelines

but Ill say it again - position sizing is important and there are no certainties. ive weighed what i see as the probabilities and the risk reward is excellent based on my views of where metal prices are about to go

because its such a highly leveraged income stream - even with the modest hedge theyve now introduced - it can move from squeaky face washing to handsomely net cash generative very quickly

if i was just looking at the stock specifics by themselves i might form a different view because i would be expecting steady state income + gold/silver stock buying

but because i spend a lot of time mapping metal price structures in combination with company specifics - I like my position here. but thats just me

those silver forum posts from early yesterday explain some of what im seeing in gold

structurally - if you look across the sector - PM stocks are pricing capitulation lows

but because gold has just touched its massive arc structure wall - i think that will prove a misdirect

if you chart long term PM waves - these kind of price behaviours are the norm during major moves up

could be the arc breaks and then itll get ugly - but the probabilites suggest otherwise

im particularly heartened by last week's breakout on the US 10yr inflation bond and my view on how economic data pulls through the US econometric models