At the risk of upsetting the regulars on here with my usual...

At the risk of upsetting the regulars on here with my usual downbeat assessments, for what its worth-

The last quarter I predicted they would make $10.8M; they made 10.88M. BUT I also thought they would make more gold than they did - a combination of higher Au prices compensated for lack of tonnes. However, opex was $1.1M more than I predicted - not sure where the extra cost was for.

I note there has been more wet weather at Nymagee in July, so I will assume haulage was affected.

Now all that being said, if they achieve the following, they MIGHT just scrape through until the silver arrives-

REST OF 2021-
Recovery of 3.2g/t (75% recovery at the higher grade quoted), at least 820t/day, and A$2500/oz. In effect - they need 7500oz quarters to get this; a big ask based on previous performance.
This will give them $38.4M in the bank. Assuming operational costs stay about the same, there will be $24.3M outlay until the end of the year. So an overall profit around $14.1M. This will be enough to see off most of the debt to TPC and puts them in a decent position going forward.

2022 onwards-
Regarding moving to silver, I'm going to assume they can mine 75g/t head grade at 80% recovery and 2000t/day to give ~350,000oz/Ag per quarter. This would give them A$12.7M a quarter at A$35/oz (or $14.1M at $40/oz). Outlay would reduce since haulage is no longer required from Boppy; this would be in the order of $1.25M/quarter.
So profit per quarter would AT LEAST be in the order of $1.5M.

I note however that mining at Manuka would offset or lack of mining at Boppy; since the tonnage would double also, this may increase overall mining cost and wipe out this profit.

So - long and short is IF A few things go right, they may just make it but I'd rather see a set of assumptions that assumes, if the worst case scenario happens, they can survive. At the moment it is more like a near-best case scenario is needed. CCU was able to chug along ok until silver started falling off a cliff in 2013/14. Any silver price below A$35 would deal a similar blow for MKR.