@GT55im not sure id call it opposing - more a different angle. i dont discard fundamentals ever
and you are right that new ops generally get marked harder on aisc disappointment vs developer stories that are simply low or negative implied margin
thats why i said bet size and timing is key to me
i worked in a small single miner stock at one point - so know only too well precisely the kind of issues to which you refer. one pit wall subsides and all of a sudden oompf - right in the aisc
this is precisely why silver mines are often called widowmakers - they typically run with very high leverage - heroes in bull pm cycles, zeroes in a bear
but there's a lot of nuance as a result. these arent really value investor players - they are leverage plays. but having mine assets do offer a bit of a proxy hedge
hence why im a buyer down here and not above 50c
there are small silver mines in mexico running sub 30 g/t Ag profitably - not many and they are heap leach so lower mill cost
but talking opex vs revs on silver there is all so much 'he said she said' to me - because im not in the room with the comps.
so - occam;s razor
its a gold stock til end of year and a negligible mining cost stockpile processor for at least ~9 months after that
so there's probably 12 months before the market sees the whites of the eyes you concerned about - and i strongly suspect you;re overshooting on your aisc but without a detailed mine plan, strip and production plan i dont see any point in worrying about it
the gold and silver price + mt boppy fcf will set the stock direction for a long long time yet
running 4.3g/t gold with a few things going right you could get a $4-5m dec quarter and the whole complexion changes
but as i said - i wouldnt have taken an exposure if i wasnt seeing positive signs re gold and silver prices
