so this is what i was referring to re the US tips being a positive forecaster
someone else had been looking at the same thing as me - this was from bloomberg and repeated on zerohedge https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-yields-are-puking-again
gold (and ultimately silver) are heavily driven by real long bond yields - more negative real yields are - better PMs typically do
though i suspect US IBs will keep suppressing paper pricing until next US cpi/cpe
but as you can see - there's as big valuation gap at present
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