well the rules are the rules - so i try to time my exposures to...

well the rules are the rules - so i try to time my exposures to invest based on what i think happens vs the rule set - however wonky

my interpretation of US econometrics is that they use an averaging system for cpi and cpe inputs + use hand picked artisinal number creation for added flavour. otherwise known as hedonic adjustments

so the way I see it - US treasury linked 10yr real yield is currently -1.1% - nominal 10yr yield is about 1.5% last i checked

So they currently use a 2.6% cpi figure.

Yet month on month the cpi jumped 5.4% May to June


So what i think the inflation linked bonds do is drop the index number from 13 months prior and add the new one - then apply the 12 month average - likely with some 'seasonal adjustments'

If I'm right - then what should happen is you get less spot flare ups in the CPI as seen via that treasury - but a rising trend over time that keeps peaking past where individual numbers may start tailing off

which is basically why i thought now in particular was time to take some more leverage in my PM portfolio


though i am concerned at what kind of magic hand hijinks they may get up to


narratively this will also be the first major test vs the FOMC's 'inflation is transitory' mantra - in terms of the psychology of investors

never know for sure - but it feels like the risk is skewed in favour of long PMs here - simply because gold/silver are so far below the US 10yr TIPs