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Add to that the their housing component (which is 33% of cpi) is...

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BullishBearish

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06/08/21

10:44

Post #: 55078484
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Originally posted by goldbear77: ↑

well the rules are the rules - so i try to time my exposures to invest based on what i think happens vs the rule set - however wonky

my interpretation of US econometrics is that they use an averaging system for cpi and cpe inputs + use hand picked artisinal number creation for added flavour. otherwise known as hedonic adjustments

so the way I see it - US treasury linked 10yr real yield is currently -1.1% - nominal 10yr yield is about 1.5% last i checked

So they currently use a 2.6% cpi figure.

Yet month on month the cpi jumped 5.4% May to June

So what i think the inflation linked bonds do is drop the index number from 13 months prior and add the new one - then apply the 12 month average - likely with some 'seasonal adjustments'

If I'm right - then what should happen is you get less spot flare ups in the CPI as seen via that treasury - but a rising trend over time that keeps peaking past where individual numbers may start tailing off

which is basically why i thought now in particular was time to take some more leverage in my PM portfolio

though i am concerned at what kind of magic hand hijinks they may get up to

narratively this will also be the first major test vs the FOMC's 'inflation is transitory' mantra - in terms of the psychology of investors

never know for sure - but it feels like the risk is skewed in favour of long PMs here - simply because gold/silver are so far below the US 10yr TIPs

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Add to that the their housing component (which is 33% of cpi) is based on rent. The way they derive that value is by petitioning home owners if they were to rent out their home to themselves what would they pay? That is the most asinine logic demonstrably skewing cpi to the downside. If actual price paid for rent were used, or a combination of average rent charged and home value were used US cpi is in double digits.

Last edited by BullishBearish: 06/08/21

MKR Price at posting: 27.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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