I agree the rise in the product price will make this a very good quarter. The guidance is for sales of 65-75kt which suggests revenue of $52-60 million if the price were $800/t, though not all that cash might be received this quarter. Project costs at the top end of the guidance would be $20 million plus staff/admin/ tax/ capital spending of say $5 million. That suggests a further $27-35 million plus on cash at the end of the last quarter of $50 million. So Autosime's figure for cash at the end of CY21 of $90 million is possible at the upper end, depending on realised prices and the timing of sales.
We need to make hay this quarter in my view as Richards Bay is ramping up again and is expected to be in full production again early in CY 22. It is a major producer and it is likely to put downward pressure on prices next year.
I still think we need guidance on production in CY22 and the dividend before the share price gets rerated, but I live in hope.
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