CY2022 guidance has lower tonnes produced and sold as we move further south in Block C and into Block D where HM ore grades are lower. An increase in average stripping ratios, particularly in Block D, and a recognition of higher shipping costs results in an increase in forecast Project Operating Costs for 2022 compared to 2021 guidance. However, recent increases in zircon and ilmenite prices mean that the Company is forecasting similar Project EBITDA to previous years at Boonanarring.
Effectively they are saying lower sales will offset higher prices next year.
My rough estimate for NPAT in 2021 is $27 million (it depends a lot on depreciation). So EPS CY 19 was 2.1 cps, CY 20 was 2.5 cps and I get 2.7 cps in CY 21.
For CY22 I get EBITDA of around $100 million plus compared with around $86 million in CY 20 and a similar estimate (by me) for CY21.
Assuming similar depreciation, but higher exploration spendingthan last year that suggest EPS in CY22 of 3 to 3.5 cps. Of course this depends a lot on what happens to prices over the rest of the year.
IMA Price at posting:
21.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
