I'm not sure about others, but I need to change my working assumptions to get down to revenue receipts of only A$4.0m this quarter.
With 34kt shipped, they only got A$117/t or US$86/t @ 0.73I was expecting pricing a lot stronger than sub US$3/dmtu. I had been thinking pricing would be set as FoB delivery occurred. The 44% Mn prices just before and after Angelic Anna left port were US$6.53 (4 March) and US$7.86 (11 March). Any half-way normal grade and shipping discount that works for Q1 and Q2 doesn't give a sensible answer for Q3. I'm now thinking Ore pricing is set well in advance of shipping departure. The later February prices were also too high to sensibly work so I think it may have been priced early Feb.
One possibility is that the price is set around a month before departure. This would mean the Q3 shipment would have been set at around US$5.46/dmtu. High but not completely stupid estimates grade/shipping estimates can then reduce this to net receipts of US$86/t. Dropping the ore grade down to 30.5% noted in the Petra capital report helps. Grades weren't mentioned in the half year report or quarterlies so this figure must have been supplied by E25 directly.
As
@Garant found yesterday, Aquamarine SW has been contracted. This is the same size as Angelic Anna (37kt) so likely to take 34-35kt dry weight. If the Ore price is set around a month before departure, the Ore price for the Aquamarine shipment is already set. In early April the 44% Mn Fastmarkets price tipped over US$8/dmtu. This would provide E25 confidence to state the price in their quarterly, otherwise they would look silly if the Fastmarket 44% price fell away on this or next Friday's update (London time).
Smelter credits / by-product credits
Clearly they didn't come in for Q3 as indicated in the quarterly two periods ago. Petra capital note in their research piece the absence of US$18/t of by-product credits in the Dec21 half year. They have however been shown something that has provided them the confidence to forecast that by-product credits will approach PFS levels during 2H 2022 (although its not clear if 2H 2022 is the 2nd half of the year to June 2022, or the 2nd half of the calendar year).
The next shipment after AquamarineGiven last years log washer incident, E25 appear to being cautious and only confirming a shipment when all the ore for the delivery has been processed. If still running near 20kt/mth, the next shipment would be triggered very late May/Early June. Anything before then would tend to indicate either production volumes are nearing 30kt/mth or they have increased confidence to commission shipments on ore that is yet to be processed.
Hopefully Petra capital is right that production will hit nameplate during the June quarter.
(20min delay)